Well, I'd like to say that today has certainly lived up to my expectations. A High Risk of severe weather has been issued, with this risk containing the possibility for several strong, long track tornadoes also included in this risk.
The High Risk includes parts of KS and OK, where the SPC specifically says "...A tornado outbreak is likely across parts of the southern and central Plains today and tonight...", which is of particular concern considering the amount of highly populated areas within this risk area. Within the High Risk area, there is a High Risk (30%) chance for tornadoes, a Moderate Risk (30%) for severe wind gusts, and a High Risk (45%) for large or very large hail.
It is worth noting that several long track,potentially violent…Read more >
OK, this post is going to be mainly about last night, but I'll start with the outlook first, as it makes sense to do so.
An Enhanced Risk is currently in effect for IA, WI and MN. This is followed by the standard Slight and Marginal Risks.
Anyway, on to the biggest part of the post. 2 very large, violent and long lived tornadoes occurred last night, in Elk City, OK and Oklahoma, WI. Both of these storms caused heavy damage, injury totals, and 1 death each.
In Elk City, OK, the tornado was multiple vortex in nature, and completely debarked trees within the neighbourhoods hit hardest. This is a sign of EF4 damage, however, buildings appear to have taken high end EF3 to low end EF4 damage in the worst cases.
Now, on to Oklahoma, WI, where a long …Read more >
Alrighty, I know it's been a while since I last did an outlook blog, but today is a Moderate Risk, so it is needed.
The Moderate Risk area is located across parts of OK and TX, surrounded by a large Enhanced Risk area that goes up into the OH Valley. this is surrounded by the usual Slight Risk area. Within the Moderate Risk area, there is a Moderate (15%) risk of tornadoes, a Moderate Risk (30%) for severe wind gusts, and a High Risk (45%) chance of large to very large hail.
It is worth noting that a Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch was issued not long ago, which is for the entire Moderate Risk area, as well as a significant portion of the surrounding Enhanced Risk area.
I'll update this in a few hours if I can. If not, I will enco…Read more >
Im offically comming out of retirement which means i might increase inactivtyRead more >
On another wiki I was looking around when I saw "Hypothetical Tornadoes" I was confused...and then it said Discover New Wikis...uh...I am the co-owner of that wiki already.Read more >
On this day in history, not one, but two F5-rated tornadoes cut through two Texas cities, leaving complete devastation and very high death tolls in their paths. One of these tornadoes ties as the deadliest in Texas state history, destroying over a third of the city of Waco, while the other was arguably one of the most violent in Texas, tearing through Lubbock exactly 17 years later.
Below I'll compare the two tornadoes, and do my own crude assessment of their strength based on today's rating standards.
The Waco, Texas F5 - May 11, 1953
Monday, May 11, 1953 dawned humid and sunny over the city of Waco. To the south, outflow boundaries from a few scattered thunderstorms from the previous night were developing, and by early afternoon, a dry line…
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the F3 badge is one of the rarest badges of Hypothetical Tornadoes Wiki, the F3 badge is a badge that you earn when you get a 60 day streak...so this is what it says on my page
contribute to the wiki every day for 60 days ( 58/60 )Read more >
Ok, the Tropical Storm icon has a hurricane style eye of some sorts, the TS icon is always missing the middle...even the official National Hurricane Center does this!!
If you see to the right Tropical Storm Adrian (which is forecast to become a hurricane in a few days) HAS A EYE WITH THE ICON!?!! Now I can get The Weather Channel doing this because they put the category in the middle, but atleast make the TS solid and say "TS" The NHC also puts a eye on their TS icon, I know this isn't related to wiki topic but I am using this to Ctrl+C and Ctrl+V on some other wikis I get on. (that this is related to wiki topic)Read more >
So, you have saw the title. You're not seeing things. I actually am going to officially leave this wiki and the "Hypothetical" wikis as I feel like I don't have sufficient interest in these wikis anymore. I haven't edited here in ages, and this is not my thing anymore. Other than loss of interest, other reasons why I haven't been here have been school (working towards graduation), real life, and being on other websites. It is time that I move away from a subject that I became interested in as a 13 year old back in 2012 (hypothetical hurricanes being my first wiki). You might find me on other wikis in the coming weeks. Current plans is that I might rejoin Candy Crush Wiki, and I might find more wikis to contribute afterward. There may even …Read more >
On this day in 1975, an outbreak of tornadoes hit the states of Louisiana, Taxas, Mississippi, South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa with 36 confirmed tornadoes reported by the NWS.
By far the most significant of these, and the namesake of the outbreak, was the F4 tornado that tore through parts of downtown Omaha, Nebraska. The tornado initially touched down in Sarpy county, before passing through Douglas County and crossing over I-80 into Omaha. Along the tornadoes path, severe damage to buildings was noted, including several that were completely levelled, and thousands of trees were either snapped or debarked. This tornado was the cause of 3 fatalities during the outbreak.
The other significant tornado of the outbreak was another F4, which struc…Read more >
Today marks a date in which tornadoes changed many lives in their respective years of occurrence. On this day in 2003, 86 tornadoes touched down on the most prolific day of what would become the record for the most tornadoes recorded in a single period of continuous activity (401). Four F4 tornadoes were recorded among that number: one in and around Franklin, Kansas; two in Kansas City, Missouri; and another in Jackson, Tennessee. The Franklin tornado killed one; the first Kansas City tornado killed two; and the Jackson tornado killed eleven, and each incurred millions in damages.
However, the largest event on this date was what took a city in the night. In what today makes only a decade ago, the Greensburg, Kansas tornado swept through the…
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OK, I'll start a little differently today, with a little history. On this day back in 1999, an F5 tornado ripped through parts of Bridge Creek and Moore, Oklahoma, killing 36 people, injuring 583 others, and causing $1 billion in damages, which was a record at the time. Another record set by this tornado was the highest wind observed on earth, when Joshua Wurman, a storm chaser/tornado expert veteran, used his Dopplar on Wheels to measure the 318 mph winds about 100 meters off the ground.
Now, onto the present, and todays outlook. An Enhanced Risk is now in effect for all of Louisiana, as well as parts of Texas, Arkansas and Mississippi. A Slight Risk surrounds this area, followed by the Marginal as always. The main risks are expected to be…Read more >
OK, for those have been following the updates on Canton, I have another one now.
A preliminary damage survey was done yesterday, which has concluded mid range EF4 damage for the western Canton tornado. Whether this gets raised to EF5 depends on certain factors. Whilst some buildings did get swept away by the tornado, untethered buildings that get swept away entirely can only be rated at best high end EF4, whilst tethered buildings tend to get to get the EF5 rating. Also, due to lack of scouring in the worst damaged areas as well, this also likely indicates an EF4 tornado at most. The winds for this tornado have a preliminary 180 mph estimate, or mid range EF4.
The tornado that passed through downtown Canton is still currently on its EF3 prel…Read more >
OK then, here goes the first outlook of the month of May. An Enhanced Risk is in place for today, with the expected risk once again expected to be large hail (15%), damaging winds (30%), and a few tornadoes (5%).
The concerning thing about today is that the risk is typically in somewhere that doesnt usually see such a high risk. Areas under an Enhanced Risk today include parts of Maryland, Washington DC, Pennsylvania, New York, and North Carolina, as well as parts of Massachusetts. If I have any of the areas listed here wrong, please do not hesitate to correct me, and I'll apologise in advance for the mistake.
The Slight Risk area around it takes up parts of surrounding states, as well as parts of South Carolina and Georgia as well.
Now, onto…Read more >
First if all, yes ive pluralised tornadoes here, as as many as 3 confirmed tornadoes hit Canton, Texas last night and into the early hours of this morning. Having watched one live feed during the event, devastation was immediately evident, but after seeing other snippets of streaming from other teams in the same area, I can say one thing for certain. Horrific damage has occurred in Canton, with as many as 49 injuries reported, and 7 confirmed fatalities so far.
The first tornado touched down about 1930 CDT, and went on for more than 2 hours before finally lifting. This twister was well over a mile wide, and was powerful enough to lift buildings off foundations in the areas worst affected. Cars are reported as being thrown huge distances, bu…Read more >
the SPC is saying in MD 598 (which just expired) that a downstream watch to 174 would be possible...just look at the MD itself.Mesoscale Discussion 598 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017
Areas affected...Portions of southeastern MO and southern/central IL/IN
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174...
Valid 292330Z - 300030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174 continues.
SUMMARY...Mainly a damaging wind threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174. Downstream watch issuance into Indiana is possible.
DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms is moving eastward along a stationary boundary in east-central IL as of 2330Z. This line has produced multiple reports o…
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OK, so theres yet another Enhanced Risk out for todays outlook it seems. Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected, which may pose a risk of there being large hail, damaging winds, and even a few tornadoes could be possible.
The Enhanced Risk goes from mid TX up into parts of LA, OK, most of AR, and some of KS. This is surrounded by the usual Slight Risk area, which goes from around the Enhanced Risk area into parts of TN, KY, IL and OH.
It is worth noting that the 5% chance for tornadoes could be a little conservative based on the SPC forecasts for a 30% risk of both large hail, and damaging winds, but we will see later on today what happens.
As always, I will be updating this post if it is needed.Read more >
OK, so it seems that today has only received a large Enhanced Risk, at least for now. Within the risk area, there is the potential for numerous severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes according to the SPC.
The Enhanced Risk covers parts of TX, OK, AR, KS, KY, IN, OH, and TN, surrounded by a Slight Risk that covers areas of NE, and some of VA.
Now, onto yesterdays tornado reports, of which, besides the Marginal Risk, were plentiful. AL saw numerous tornadoes. A tornado in Montgomery County did widespread tree damage, and will probably receive an EF1 rating when surveys are complete. Another tornado was reported in Pike County, again in AL, which also produced considerable tree damage along its path. Bo…Read more >
OK, so here is the expected tornadic event, which has arrived earlier than expected. A Moderate Risk of severe thundertorms has been issued for parts of TX, AR and LA in association with a trough and dryline, as well as a developing surface frontal zone. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, of which a few could be strong, are forecast within this area.
An Enhanced Risk is also in effect for parts of TX, OK, TN and KS. This area has the potential for a few tornadoes, as well as some large hail and damaging wind gusts. This is surrounded by the usual Slight Risk area, which is expected to cover parts of IN, IL, KY, MS, and AL.
The main risk is expected to be during the early afternoon and into the early evening, and I will …Read more >
OK, I thought I'd bring you upto date with the latest developments on the expected tornado outbreak this week, so here goes.
Another trough is expected to move across the Plains on Friday, and coupled withan initial capping sector along a developing warm front, the conditions are forecast to be favourable for severe development later in the day once the cap breaks. This will allow fpr the possibility of supercell development, bring t=bringing the threat of large to very large hail, strong to dmaaging winds, and tornadoes to these areas. The SPC 30% hatched risk area is covering most of OK, as well as parts of AR. It is worth noting that an anticipated dryline is expected to form in this area, and that CAPE values will be extremely high - 5…Read more >
The 1300 UTC outlook has called for a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of GA and SC. The main risk is expected to be a few damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
Not much can be said now, so I'll update if need be.Read more >
Im sad to announce my retirement it was fun being here i may come out of retirement one day for a third run but for now i am far too inactive
if i ever come back for a third run i will redisimgh rebuild and reclaim what i had before
NO this not an april fools joke
TheLunar2 (talk) 13:58, April 23, 2017 (UTC)Read more >
OK, this one might take some time, but here it goes. Model runs are suggesting a potent midway trough will be present across the four corner states. It is worth noting that although the Euro and GFS models, whilst showing different intensities of the trough and locations, both show a very moist environment over the four corners states of TX, OK,NE and AR.
The Euro is particularly consistent with this scenario, ejecting a vigorous shortwave trough from the central plains states. The GFS, on the other hand, keeps the trough going into the the four corners states. Both models, however, collide a very moist airmass with a well developed dryline by the afternoon of Thursday, April 28, and besides the difference between the modelling solutions, b…Read more >
There is currently a Slight Risk of severe weather in effect for 1200 UTC onwards (the next convective day). The main threat appears to be damaging wind gusts (15%) and large hail (15%), of which both of these have a Slight chance of occurring. There is also a Marginal (2%) chance for tornadoes.
The Slight Risk areas include far eastern LA, most of central MS, the northern half of AL, and the southern half of TN, which is surrounded by the usual Marginal Risk, which extends up the East Coast tot he Canadian border, where the 2% tornado probability is.
There was a tornado reported and confirmed by a spotter in Valley View, TX, which was heavily rain wrapped. Further details remain unknown at this time. Apart from that, there were several repo…Read more >
Today has ended up the 3rd Enhanced Risk outlook from the NWS SPC in a row, and to be honest, im surprised it not a Moderate.
The northern parts of TX, as well as southern OK, are in this risk area, which holds a 30% chance (moderate) for damaging winds, a 30% chance (moderate) for large to very large hail, as well as a slight chance (5%) for tornadoes.
The Slight Risk that surrounds it goes into central AR, though the threat is much less there.
Anyway, I'll update this as always if needed.Read more >
Today has another Enhanced Risk out, this time for a moderate wind risk (30%), large hail (15), as well as a small risk (5%) of tornadoes. This risk area covers areas of IL, MI and OH. Surrounding this area is the usual Slight Risk, which covers the areas immediately surrounding the Enhanced, as well as parts of extreme east-central US.
Further to the southwest, a Slight Risk has also been issued, with the expectation of a slight (15%) risk of large hail associated with afternoon thunderstorms. Areas in this area include northeastern TX, and from western to central OK.
The Marginal Risk goes between these two areas, as well as around them, like normal.
Onto yesterdays reports, where there were 3 tornado reports, all related. The suspected tor…Read more >
Today has become an Enhanced Risk for severe weather for portions of far northeastern NE, and most of IA. In the Slight Risk today will be parts of MI, WI, KS and IL.
The main risk is expected to be large hail (30%), damaging winds (15%), and the possibility of a few tornadoes (10%0 across a small portion of central IA.
The risk is expected to begin during mid afternoon for the areas affected, and will most likely last into the overnight hours.
As always, if the threat of severe weather requires an update to this blog, I will be able to do it until about 2230 UTC as always.Read more >
OK, straight into the post. There is a Slight Risk of severe weather for parts of TX, OK, KS and MO. Large hail,and a few instances of strong to damaging winds are expected, and the possibility of tornadoes, though only marginal (2%), cant be ruled out. The line of severe weather, if it occurs, will stretch from the Southern Plains up into the Ozarks.
The Marginal Risk area covers around the Slight Risk, as usual, and then up to the Canadian border along the eastern coast.
Whilst there were 6 reports of tornadoes yesterday, they were all short lived, and none did any significant damage. The tornado that happened outside Dimmitt, TX on April 14 was revealed to have remained stationary for over an hour, and was over a mile wide. Luckily though…Read more >
OK then,straight into todays post, which on time today :P
There is a large Slight Risk that covers parts of TX, OK, KS, NE, MI, IA, IL and WI. The main threat is expected to be large hail and damaging winds, but the setup looks as though it could harvest a few weak tornadoes as well within the stronger storms.
If anyone hasnt heard about it, a series of tornadoes was reported near Dimmit, TX last night, one of which was reported as a large multiple vortex tornado, with one other related report to it. The supercell responsible received numerous PDS Tornado Warnings during its life, and dropped at least 3 confirmed tornadoes whilst active.
Anyway, if this post needs updating, it will be done when the time comes, as always.Read more >
OK, very late blog, I'm aware, but the event isnt expected to begin for another few hours. A few severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, as well as isolated cases of strong to damaging winds. This affects parts of TX, NM, OK, and KS.
If this blog needs updating, I will be around for a few more hours to do so until about 2300 UTC.Read more >
Okie dokie, there has been a Slight Risk issued today for parts of extreme Northwest TX, Southwest NM, with the main threats expected to be large hail and some damaging wind gusts.
Not much to say on yesterdays Marginal Risk of course, apart from a few cases of large hail and a few instances of gusty winds.
As always, I'll update this post if needed.Read more >
OK, I think I will apologise first of all for doing this so late, but I wanted to be absolutely sure on the double risk area, which meant waiting until 1300 UTC. Anyway, there is a double Slight Risk out for today, with areas of the northern and southern areas at risk.
The first area, covering parts of IL, WI, MI and OH. Apologies for any mistakes with state names, but I'm unfamiliar with the northern states. Anyway, this area holds the potential for severe thunderstorms capable of some large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps (but unlikely), a tornado or two as well.
The second area, which covers most of central TX into parts of LA and AR, holds the potential for some strong thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail.
As always…Read more >
OK, so there have been no posts the last few days, as there has only been Marginal Risks. Today, however, has quite a large Slight Risk area, and so is getting a post.
Severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of OK, NE, MN, KS, and IA. These storms are expected to bring isolated large hail, a few damaging wind gusts, and a marginal threat of tornadoes.
As I havent updated already, the results from the April 5 High Risk are back, with 18 confirmed tornadoes, and 12 more suspected. From the 2 1/2 hour long tornado in GA, damage surveys are still ongoing, but the preliminary damage rating was EF2.
As always, this post will be updated if needed.Read more >
Some of you (but probably not anyone outside of the Eastern US) might have heard of hhgregg (Yes, the one that is failing) It's slogan is "Gregg's got it!" It was founded in Princeton, Indiana and is headquarted in Indianapolis, Indiana...on March 2 they announced that they were filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy and they were closing 88 of there 226 stores, this was upgraded a month later to ALL 226 stores, I think one of the reasons is too common sales (There was sale for opening in south FL)...my local hhgregg opened in 1987...and is location #0009 (It was founded in the 60's) hhgregg will start their closing sales today. (RIP hhgregg)
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OK. Today's outlook is of particular concern, so we will jump straight into it. A Moderate Risk is in effect for most of GA, as well as parts of AL, TN, SC and KY. It is also worth mentioning that some areas of GA and AL have the potential to be upgraded to High Risk later in the day if the expected outbreak does indeed materialise.
An Enhanced Risk surrounds the Moderate area, covering parts of IN, OH, NC, and FL. This is surrounded by the usual Slight and Marginal Risk areas.
Today's forecast is calling for a likely hood of an outbreak of severe thunderstorms from the TN and OH Valleys, with the potential for supercell development. Within the expected supercells, tornadoes are expected to be strong and/or long lived, being able to produce …Read more >
OK, straight into todays outlook. There is a double Enhanced Risk today, one concerning tornadoes, the other large hail. Both areas have a potential for damaging winds.
The first area, over parts of northeast OK, southeast KS, and far southwestern MO, holds a 30% chance of significant large hail, as well as a 10% chance of damaging winds. There also appears to be a 2% probability of tornadoes, but this isnt as much of a concern as it has been in recent outlooks. As usual, there is the Slight Risk that surrounds this area, along with the Marginal.
The second, more significant Enhanced Risk area lies across eastern central MS and western central AL, and has a 10% chance of tornadoes relating to severe thunderstorms. These storms also have a 15…Read more >
Today's Moderate Risk has been downgraded to Enhanced (at least for now), as thunderstorm activity has become rather disorganised. The 0830 UTC outlook called for the possibility of a large area of severe thunderstorms capable of severe conditions to develop from the central Gulf Coast to the Carolinas.
It is worth noting that scattered damaging winds and tornadoes are expected, and after looking at radar this morning, there is potential for today to once again become a Moderate Risk.
Now, onto the usual tornado news from the previous day. Two large, very destructive tornadoes hit Alexandria, LA and the cities of Jena and Midway, LA. Both of these significant tornadoes caused tornado emergencies, and both have caused significant damages.
I'll…Read more >
I'll jump right in on this post, as its very important to do so. A Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms, most of which are expected to be dangerous, is forecast for today and tonight across the Gulf Coasts of TX and LA. The I20 corridor in particular is at risk, with a concentrated area of significant damaging winds, and several strong/intense tornadoes expected, as well as the threat for very large hail.
As I write this post, there is already a tornado watch out for parts of TX, with a low potential of EF2+ tornadoes. Just to bring to light how serious this is, its only just after 0400 CDT. A possible tornado was located on radar near Vance, moving NE at 30 mph.
Todays setup is too complex to describe here, but the full synopsis is availab…Read more >
And it's not even April Fools Day anymore, so you know this has got to be something serious.
But, yes folks, i've been gone for a good while again, which i do see resulted in a complete demotion (which isnt fair.. *cough* layten *cough*).. remember the period a while ago in which my life had become so unpredictable i had to take time off and divert my attention elsewhere?
Well, you dont need to be an expert to know that it's happened again.. only worse..
Now, i have been able to get A Break today.. but i've noticed my life seems to be getting more Hectic and Unpredictable.. plus, i seem to kinda forget about other things.. namely this..
Im not kidding, it's really been that bad for me..
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And as a matter of fact, it's been getting bad enough t…
With 366 confirmed tornadoes, the first three months of 2017 have been the most active since at least 1990 (according to Tornado History Project), and while this year probably won't be a record-breaker since the late-season pattern (July-August) is expected to be a bit less favourable, the chances are looking good that 2017 will at least be a fairly active year (my personal guess is probably somewhere in the 1,200 to 1,300 range). Next week's pattern is already looking favourable as well.
To begin with I'm sure everyone has noticed the SPC's Moderate Risk outlook for April 2 (Sunday), which mentions "strong tornadoes and extensive wind damage" as the main hazards along the Western Gulf Coast into east-central Texas.
The event is expected to …
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A large portion of central TX, and southeast OK is under a Slight Risk for severe weather today.
A large area of severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and some damaging winds, are expected to develop over these areas. Yet another trough has formed, and is moving over this area today, setting up for tomorrows event over the Gulf Coast. In addition to the trough, a weak surface low with associated fronts will also develop across this region, allowing for some destabilisation of the atmosphere in accordance to this.
Now, onto the usual paragraph that ends the daily post. A tornadic supercell that was PDS warned around 2230 UTC last night produced a damaging tornado that destroyed several buildings, including a church, near South Norfolk a…Read more >
OK, so an unexpected double Slight Risk has come into play for today.
The first area, over SE CO, extreme northwestern TX, western OK, and and into central KS, is associated with an upper low, accompanied with limited instability,which should open up the opportunity for some damaging winds and hail.
The other area of risk, which is associated over parts of VA and the Carolina's, will be associated with the remains of yesterday system. A weak tornado or two could also be possible. The event is only expected to be short lived over this region.
If need be, I will update this post, but that is looking unlikely from the current setups.Read more >
So as you have saw from the title, I am closing this account. The reason for this is I want to begin sort of a new era on Wikia under a new alias, and this account will be reserved as my "old self". In the "new era" I plan to get more active on different fandoms, and maybe even start coming on HHW discord and chat occasionally to meet you guys (although this won't be often, so don't bet when I'm coming on). The saddest part is that I am still going to be inactive on "hypothetical" wikis, as I consider them a thing of the past, and time is moving on. I might completely leave the hypothetical wikis soon, so don't expect me to stay for a very long time after the "new era" starts. The wikis I will join under my new username will be different, …Read more >
Report 2NOJO WEATHER CENTER REPORT 2
LOCATION: 0.2 E SHAMROCK LAKES COUNTY: BLACKFORD STATE: INDIANA
DETAILS: EF-1 DAMAGE DOCUMENTED TO A CHURCH AND SURROUNDING BUILDINGS LESS THAN A
MILE EAST OF SHAMROCK LAKES. PEAK WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 105-130MPH.
Report 1NOJO WEATHER CENTER REPORT 1
LOCATION: INBETWEEN GASTON AND EATON COUNTY: DELAWARE STATE: INDIANA
DETAILS: A ATLEAST EF-1 TORNADO WITH ATLEAST 105MPH WINDS TOUCHED DOWN ABOUT 5 MILES
EAST OF GASTON, THE TORNADO THEN TRACKED NORTH INTO WESTERN BLACKFORD COUNTY
INFLICTING EF-1/EF-2 DAMAGE.
this is pontenially inaccurate data.Read more >
If you saw my newest videos you may have saw that I recorded a video of atleast Ping-Pong ball sized hail in my front and side yards...I also recorded Tornado Watch 104, 2 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings...1 unconfirmed tornado warning and a confirmed tornado warning for my home county.Read more >
Apologies for this blog being done so late, but I've been busy doing other things. But lets get to what everyone is reading this for.
An Enhanced Risk is in effect for parts of IL, KY and OH. The main risks are expected to be significant wind gusts and large hail, which both have a Moderate outlook on them. Though tornadoes are expected again today, there is only a Marginal Risk of this happening, and the risk is over the MS and OH Valleys.
A large Slight Risk also covers no only the areas around the Enhanced Risk of the outlook, but also entirely covers the MS Valley, as well as parts of the Southeast.
In addition to the main risk area, a Marginal Risk of severe weather is forecast for parts of NV, UT, and NM. The main risk for this area is …Read more >
Ok, lets start with the bad side of things...at 3/4:30PM CDT yesterday Kelley Williamson and Randy Yarnell were driving with each other chasing a tornado in Texas when the sped past a stop sign on accident, less than 15 seconds later they collided with another car throwing both cars off the road...Kelley and Randy were killed almost instantly and so was the other storm chaser in the other car named Corbin Jaegar...Dr Greg Forbes confirmed this 2 hours later, so did Texas State Authorites. RIP Kelley, Randy, and Corbin...to all of your families I am sorry for your losses. :(Read more >
OK, I'm going to try making this a brief update on today's risk. An Enhanced Risk has been issued again for severe weather, over parts of TX, LA, AR, and and KS. A Moderate Risk may need to be issued. There is a widespread risk of large hail and damaging winds, the as well as a Slight Risk of tornadoes.
The main part of this blog today isn't the weather at the moment, but the deaths of 3 well known storm chasers from the Weather Channel. Kelley Williamson and Randy Yarnell, and as well as Corbin Jaegar, and were killed in a car crash whilst chasing a possible tornado near Spur TX around 1530 CDT. After being in hospital for several hours, and they were confirmed as the only fatalities from the tornado.
I'll update as more information becomes…Read more >
THIS BLOG HAS HAD UPDATES SINCE IT WAS WRITTEN. SEE THE UPDATES SECTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE FOR DETAILS.
OK, so today has been Enhanced Risk for a few days now, and this remains the same today, though I'd say looking at the Day 1 outlook that a Moderate Risk could get issued later on if needed.
The SPC is calling for 2 areas of severe weather today. The first over the southern Plains, the second over the Mid Atlantic states.
The first area of risk is over parts of central and northern TX, as well as parts of southern OK. The SPC is calling for the potential for very large hail, and significant wind gusts in this area. It is also worth noting that tornadoes are in the forecast for today, with the potential for some strong tornadoes in no…Read more >
Today's Day 1 outlook has become an Enhanced Risk for parts of MS, AR, KY, and most of the central areas of TN. A Slight Risk surrounds this area, as usual, followed by the Marginal.
The main risks for today are for damaging winds and hail associated with the ongoing midwave trough over the continental US. Coupled with the merging of the system with a developing low level warm front, this should enable significant instability to occur in the areas mentioned. In addition to this, a weak surface low and will move over the MS valley, and into the OH valley as well as a developing cold front stalls over the lower MS valley.
CAPE values for this afternoon (US time) are between 1000-1500 j/kgk3, allowing for significant instability to occur as a r…Read more >