The 2019 Prescott, Arkansas tornado was a highly destructive, long-tracked EF4 tornado which cut a path through southern Arkansas in the evening of Sunday, March 17, 2019. The tornado was part of a larger weather system that affected the "Dixie Alley" region of the United States between March 17 and March 19, producing a total of 76 tornadoes, three of which were rated EF4. The Prescott tornado was the deadliest of the year 2019 and the deadliest in the state of Arkansas since the Vilonia, Arkansas tornado of April 27, 2014, causing a total of 11 deaths and 126 injuries.

The tornado remained on the ground for 55 minutes over a 56.30-mile path, and caused high-end EF4 damage while at peak strength, making it the first violent tornado in Arkansas since 2014. The tornado's final rating was a source of some controversy, with at least one damage survey team concluding EF5 damage in Prescott. The tornado was officially rated EF4 based on the lack of prominent wind-rowing of debris, debarking of trees, or severe mangling of cars and trucks that were tossed.

The tornado was produced by a high-precipitation supercell and remained very heavily wrapped in rain over the majority of its 56-mile path. As a result, no photos or videos of the tornado were captured, and many in the path of the parent supercell were unaware of the tornado's existence. Nine of the 11 people killed in the tornado were not in storm shelters or safe rooms when the tornado struck; two people were killed in vehicles, and a third man was caught outside while running to his storm shelter. The tornado's high fatality-to-injury rate was attributed to the fact that many in its path were caught off-guard and unable to take shelter in time.

Meteorological synopsis

The outbreak which spawned the Prescott tornado was produced as an intense mid-level shortwave trough developed over the eastern High Plains states. A cold front moved eastward across the middle and lower Mississippi River Valley before heading into the Ohio River Valley and stretched into the Mid-South portion of the United States. In front of the cold front, a warm, moist and unstable air mass spread northward from the lower Mississippi River Valley and northern Gulf Coast States into the middle Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. The outbreak was well-anticipated, with the Storm Prediction Center issuing a 15% risk of severe weather for much of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and far eastern Texas as early as March 12. On March 14, a 30% risk of severe weather was issued for southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. In the morning of March 15, the Storm Prediction Center issued an Enhanced risk of severe weather for an area extending from north-central Arkansas through southeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Louisiana into central Texas. The potential for damaging tornadoes was noted as early as March 15, along with damaging straight-line wind gusts. By the afternoon of March 16, a Moderate risk had been issued for much of central Arkansas and portions of far eastern Oklahoma.

2019-03-17 outlook

2000 UTC convective outlook on March 17.

On March 17, the Moderate risk area was reduced slightly and shifted roughly 60 miles to the southeast. The Enhanced risk, meanwhile, was expanded into south-central Texas. A 15% hatched risk of tornadoes was issued for southeastern Arkansas into central Arkansas, with a 10% hatched risk of tornadoes being issued for central Arkansas, northwestern Louisiana, and central and southern Texas. The Day 1 convective outlook noted the potential for "numerous tornadoes...a few of which may be intense", and at 11:43 AM CDT a tornado watch was issued for Arkansas and far northeastern Texas, with a 70% risk of two or more tornadoes, and a 50% risk of one or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes. The first thunderstorms of the day were mainly non-severe, although significant flooding occurred across much of the lower Mississippi River Valley. Tornadic supercells began to develop around 4:00 pm CDT, with the first tornadoes of the outbreak being weak and short-lived. At 4:43 pm CDT, a large wedge tornado touched down and cut through Faulkner County, Arkansas, killing three people in the town of Mayflower and receiving a rating of high-end EF2. Another long-tracked EF2 tornado caused considerable damage and one death in the town of Turkey Creek at around 5:20 pm CDT.

The supercell that produced the Prescott tornado developed over northeastern Texas around 4:50 pm CDT and rapidly intensified. By 5:25 pm, radar indicated the storm was likely producing straight-line gusts of up to 80 miles per hour, and a severe thunderstorm warning was issued for Cass and Bowie Counties in Texas, Caddo Parish, Louisiana, and Miller County, Arkansas. The supercell caused considerable straight-line wind damage in Miller County near Texarkana, injuring at least 12 people. At 5:50 pm, a visible hook echo developed within the core of the supercell, and a tornado warning was issued for Miller, Hempstead, Little River, and Pike Counties. At 6:17 pm, the tornado warning was extended to Nevada, Dallas, Clark, and Ouachita Counties.

Tornado summary

The tornado touched down at 6:02 pm CDT over a forested area in Hempstead County roughly five miles to the north of McNab. Tracking northeast at nearly 60 miles per hour, the tornado first snapped tree branches and pushed over several shallow-rooted trees at EF0 strength. Barns and tool sheds to the northeast sustained moderate damage, and roof decking was stripped from farmhouses. The ragged funnel quickly became very heavily rain-wrapped and indiscernible to those in its path. Within minutes of its touchdown, the tornado intensified rapidly, leveling and partially sweeping away an unanchored farmhouse along the edge of Arkansas Route 73 at EF3 strength. Past this point, a row of barns was heavily damaged by the tornado at high-end EF2 strength and one person was injured before the tornado continued over a forested area. Trees were pushed over and snapped at EF1 to EF2 strength over the next two miles of the tornado's path, before the Brown Chapel was struck, losing windows and portions of its roofing at EF1 strength.

Shortly after passing to the south of High Creek, the tornado began to regain strength, completely stripping a steel-reinforced barn down to its frame and removing the roofs from a nearby hay storage shed and a farmhouse. Consistent mid-range EF2 damage occurred as the tornado then passed over and demolished a row of manufactured houses, resulting in one death and several injuries. The Southwest Ark Equipment plant was severely damaged at EF2 strength, and trees in a wood lot snapped and toppled before the tornado crossed into the Hope State Wildlife Management area, uprooting and snapping hundreds of trees in its path at EF2 to EF3 strength. The tornado narrowed from around 200 yards to 140 yards in width after exiting the conservation area, but continued to intensify, leveling barns and storage sheds at EF3 strength. Shortly afterwards, the De Ann United Methodist Church had most of its roofing removed and a portion of one of its walls blown down; three parked cars nearby were thrown 90 yards, and an elm tree was uprooted. The tornado continued through another stretch of forested areas, snapping and uprooting numerous trees in its path and tossing several of them into roads. The tornado briefly reached EF4 strength at around 6:20 pm CDT as a three-story brick mansion to the northeast of Caruse Creek was mostly demolished; immediately afterwards, the tornado weakened considerably to high-end EF2 strength as mobile homes were demolished, frame houses stripped of their roofing, and the Antonioch Baptist Church sustained minor damage. A cluster of rural frame houses was struck and partially demolished minutes later at low-end EF3 strength before the tornado crossed Arkansas Route 332.

Casualties and impact

Notable individual tornadoes
2019 Prescott, Arkansas tornado2020 Anderson, Indiana tornado2023 Dallas, Texas tornado2023 Flemington, New Jersey tornado2023 Steinbach, Manitoba tornado2024 Slater, Missouri tornado2024 Liberal, Kansas tornado2024 Woodward, Oklahoma tornado2024 Attica-Harper, Kansas tornado2024 Canadian County, Oklahoma tornado2024 Blanchard-Newcastle-Moore, Oklahoma tornado2024 Helena-Lamont, Oklahoma tornado2026 Sabetha, Kansas tornado2028 Wichita-Park City, Kansas tornado2031 Belleville, Ontario tornado2034 Florissant, Missouri tornado2034 Taylorsville, Kentucky tornado2034 Watseka, Illinois tornado2035 Cicero, Indiana tornado2037 Winfield, Alabama tornado2037 Thaxton, Mississippi tornado2037 Mobile, Alabama tornado2037 Huntsville, Alabama tornado2037 Covington, Georgia tornado2038 Abbeville-New Iberia, Louisiana tornado

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